Regarding the accidental leak of information on rate filings for the 2015 Arkansas Health Insurance Marketplace, commenter Timbo asks, “if all of the above is subsequently confirmed then is this news, big news, BIG news, or front-page-of-the-NY-Times BIG news?”

I won’t speak for the New York Times, but if the proposed rates we saw yesterday turn out to be anywhere close to the insurance rates in 2015, it would be a very, very big development and represent extremely good news for the private option in particular (you might even call it a game changer!).

Advertisement

The major caveat: that’s still a big IF. The information we reported on yesterday remains unconfirmed; even assuming it’s completely accurate, these rates are not yet finalized. That said, we’ve now had a preliminary peek at proposed rates, and while the Arkansas Insurance Department now won’t confirm or comment, the information was confirmed as accurate yesterday morning (to Pricewaterhouse Coopers) by a staffer at AID’s premium rate review division, right before the entire Insurance Department sealed their lips. If that snapshot gives us a good picture of the 2015 Marketplace, what does that mean? 

First, consider that before Obamacare, health insurance premiums for consumers buying coverage on their own was growing 10 percent or more per year, based on a recent study that looked at insurance rates from 2008 to 2010. The proposed rates we saw yesterday would represent premiums for the Obamacare Marketplace falling 3.5 percent in 2015. Obamacare advocates assumed that rates would go up; their hope was that they would rise more slowly, or be about the same, compared with what we’ve seen in the individual insurance market recently. Of course, as Jonathan Cohn points out, the law’s critics thought that rates in 2015 would skyrocket: 

Advertisement

premiums in 2015 would soar, these critics said, because the people signing up for coverage would be older and sicker than the insurance companies had expected. … References to Obamacare premiums “doubling” and even “tripling” were all over the right-wing press.

Here in Arkansas, some critics even thought that yesterday’s data suggested giant Obamacare rate hikes in Arkansas (50 percent!), even though it actually showed the opposite (for more context, see our post from yesterday).

If the Arkansas Health Insurance Marketplace sees only a relatively small increase in rates, it would be a victory. If the Marketplace rates don’t increase at all, or even fall? That’s a home run. 

Advertisement

See this followup post for what this means for the private option: If the Marketplace rates do turn out to be lower than expected, the private option likely deserves a lot of the credit. And lower rates would be an extremely positive development for the private option.

Invest in the future of great journalism in Arkansas

Join the ranks of the 63,000 Facebook followers, 58,000 Twitter followers, 35,000 Arkansas blog followers, and 70,000 daily email blasts who know that the Arkansas Times is the go-to source for tough, determined, and feisty journalism that holds the powerful accountable. For 50 years, our progressive, alternative newspaper in Little Rock has been on the front lines of the fight for truth, and with your support, we can do even more. By subscribing or donating to the Arkansas Times, you'll not only have access to all of our articles, but you'll also be helping us hire more writers and expand our coverage. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make a difference with your subscription or donation to the Arkansas Times today.

Previous article Two killed in Alexander Friday night Next article The private option and 2015 Marketplace rates