The Arkansas Poll from the University of Arkansas is out.
As I predicted this morning, it continues to show a good spread for John McCain in Arkansas. The polling was spread over three weeks and I do wonder whether the numbers reflected any movement as the market has continued to crumble and Barack Obama enjoyed generally rising numbers elsewhere (yesterday’s dead-heat AP poll a significant outlier)? Poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton would be leading McCain in Arkansas today. 54 percent said they would have voted for her.
PRESIDENT: The poll is out and you can see full details at the link. McCain is up by 13 over Obama, 49-36 (51-36 among registered voters) and, yes, it’s still the economy at the forefront of most people’s thinking. A significant numer of Dems favor McCain. Full summary on the jump.
GET A SEDATIVE FOR JERRY COX: 55 percent of the more than 1,600 polled OPPOSE INITIATED ACT 1, which would place limits on private adoptions. (55-38 was count.) Though a 2007 poll showed a bare majority of Arkansans supported a prohibition of adoption and foster parenting by gay people (that is the unstated aim of this initiated act), the 2008 poll shows a majority of people oppose a blanket prohibition against both gays and straight unmarried couples, as Act 1 would impose. Let us hope this good news prevails. VOTE NO ON INITIATED ACT 1.
Say “amen” to UA poli/sci prof Janine Parry:
“Personal feelings about an issue can be different from policy preferences,” Parry said. “After looking at this issue for several years, it seems to me that many Arkansans – both liberals and conservatives – are uncomfortable dictating the family arrangements of others, whether they agree with them or not.”
LOTTERY: It enjoys 65 percent support, just about what I would have predicted.
OTHER TIDBITS: 54 percent would have voted for Hillary Clinton for president — a majority in all four congressional districts. But McCain led Obama in every district. Questions on racial attitudes show scant affection for affirmative action. A healthy majority (59 percent) support allowing undocumented immigrants to become citizens if they meet certain criteria, such as learning English and paying back taxes. Even the Third District couldn’t muster more than 40 percent in favor of the Initiated Act 1, which ought to send a message to the legislative candidates of both parties who’ve acted as if sufficient homophobia was the primary issue of concern to voters this year.
Respondents were asked party identification. The results by congressional district, Democrats first: 1) 38-20; 2) 35-23; 3) 30-30; 4) 36-21. Rest are independent, other or didn’t say. Overall, it was 35-24 Dem.
NOTED: Blacks were underrepresented in the sample. A little more than 9 percent versus almost 16 percent of the state’s population. That could swing the presidential results a few points.