Jason Tolbert crunches the early voting and concludes from the congressional district distribution of the Republican voting that John Boozman may not win without a runoff in the Republican primary race for U.S. Senate. Sen. Gilbert Baker would be the other candidate presumed standing — if you rule out a stealth surge for Jim Holt. I wouldn’t hazard a guess.

Overall turnout and geography of heavy turnouts may be the story of this election. Early voting has produced about 8,000 votes per day so far. At that rate, total early voting might hit 90,000. If it’s about a quarter of total voting, that means maybe 360,000 to 400,000 votes will be cast overall, with about a quarter of them Republican. Locations matter. For example, through Wednesday, 600 more Republicans had voted cumulatively in Pulaski, Saline and Garland counties than in Washington and Benton counties.

Advertisement

Be a part of something bigger

As a reader of the Arkansas Times, you know we’re dedicated to bringing you tough, determined, and feisty journalism that holds the powerful accountable. For 50 years, we've been fighting the good fight in Little Rock and beyond – with your support, we can do even more. By becoming a subscriber or donating as little as $1 to our efforts, you'll not only have access to all of our articles, but you'll also be helping us hire more writers to expand our coverage and continue to bring important stories to light. With over 63,000 Facebook followers, 58,000 Twitter followers, 35,000 Arkansas blog followers, and 70,000 daily email blasts, it's clear that our readers value our great journalism. Join us in the fight for truth.

Previous article Help for murder suspect approved Next article Polling: Halter-Lincoln a tossup