Nate Silver has done a post-primary analysis of U.S. Senate races and concludes things are slightly better for the Democrats. He thinks Republicans “will need a lot of luck” to take over the Senate.

However, U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln will need divine intervention. Silver rates her chance at winning as, essentially, zero.


… it’s not hard to see why she’s in trouble. She’s way behind, her approval ratings are terrible, the polling is robust, the GOP nominated a competent challenger, Arkansas is a red state, and the numbers in races with incumbents tend to be less amenable to dramatic last-minute comebacks than those with two newbies. If Democrats spend much money on her, they are potentially costing themselves a win somewhere like Missouri or North Carolina, or a hold in an Illinois or a Washington.

He said he would take 300-1 odds on Lincoln, however.