To use the Asa Hutchinson formulation: We now have three public polls that show U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor with a lead over Republican challenger Extremist Tom Cotton. Race over, right?

Of course not. And the margin is close.


But when voters are informed Tom Cotton favored a government shutdown, it doesn’t appear to please Arkansas voters much. You’ll be hearing more, I’d guess, of Cotton’s famous broadcast remarks on the need for some tough medicine for the U.S. in the form of a government shutdown and debt default.

Public Policy Polling came up with a similar lead for Pryor to that found in polling earlier this week by a Republican super PAC.


-In Arkansas Mark Pryor leads Republican challenger Tom Cotton 44/41. Voters there oppose the shutdown 59/32. When informed that Cotton supported it, 45% of voters say they’re less likely to support him for a move up to the Senate next year compared to just 33% who say they’re more likely to.

The polling was among a batch of polling in key Senate races. Bottom line:

These polls make it clear that across the country, whether a state voted for Obama by 10 points or voted for Romney by 20, voters are extremely angry about the government shutdown. And it’s going to make Republican hopes of taking back the Senate next year that much harder.

Full poll results here. More from Arkansas questions.


Interestingly, after being pushed by both Pryor’s opposition to shutdown and Cotton’s support as a tool to defeat Obamacare, the horse race polling was mostly unchanged — 45-42 Pryor. Huge gender gap in this race: Among women 50-33 Pryor. Among men, 50-38 Cotton.

This question provides further support for the notion that the 40 percent reflexive Republican vote in Arkansas is WAY out there. 

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion  of the Tea Party?

Favorable 38% 
Unfavorable 46%
Not sure 17% 

Gender gap exists, too, on Tea Party and shutdown questions. Bottom line: Men are sorry.