October state tax revenue again exceeded last year and the forecast, but the nature of the surplus offered a mixed message. Key econmomic measures were down a bit. Here’s the summary:
October Net Available General Revenues total $372.8 million, $17.2 million or 4.8percent above last year and $8.1 million or 2.2 percent above forecast.
October results were boosted by gains in Income tax categories and a variety of smaller revenue sources while offsetting a shortfall in Sales tax. Individual and Corporate Income tax both exceeded forecast and refunds were less than expected. Refunds accounted for a sizable portion of the Net Available result compared to forecast. Gains in the two economic-related revenue lines of Sales tax and Payroll Withholding were below projections, following elevated gains last month. The swings in growth are a reminder that one month results do not represent a trend in collections or the state economy.
Four months into the year and the state has piled up more than $37 million in net revenue beyond the forecast.