Public Policy Polling robopolled 1,000 Arkansans in mid-December on the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races and found them both up for grabs.

U.S. SENATE

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Incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor 44
Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton 44

GOVERNOR

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Democrat Mike Ross 43
Republican Asa Hutchinson 44

Republicans scoff that 1) PPP is known as a Democratic polling firm (true, but their national results have been as good as any and better than many); 2) there’s an uneven representation of identified Republicans and  Democrats (37D-27R). I agree that’s somewhat problematic. But we know from a lot of other polling that, while Democrats tend to maintain a slight plurality among Arkansas voters in party identification, we also know that the growing group of self-identified independents (37 percent here) trends heavily Republican.

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I like these results because they mirror my thinking. A tossup to be decided by a sliver of undecideds who increasingly lean conservative. Which is why you won’t see Mark Pryor or Mike Ross waving a liberal standard in the months ahead. You also have an incumbent senator and a quasi-incumbent based on his frequent statewide races, Asa Hutchinson, who can’t crack 50 percent. Get ready for a tsunami of lying advertising.

Noted: Republican polls have favored the Republican candidates.

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PPP said the poll was commissioned by Americans United for Change, a progressive lobby. Consequently the poll had a number of minimum wage increase questions, with a 52-38 margin for an increase to $10 an hour and a plurality of 47 percent willing to support a candidate supporting a wage increase.

Pryor enjoyed a gender gap among women, Cotton among men. Same deal on governor’s race.

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Given the backing of the poll, it’s not surprising that PPP’s comments and analysis emphasize the value of supporting a minimum wage increase to political candidates.

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