New polling by Impact Management, a Little Rock consulting firm led by former Arkansas Republican Party officials, has polled statewide issues and found a 47-43 edge for Tom Cotton over Mark Pryor in the race for Senate, with 10 percent undecided; a tilt toward generic Republican congressional candidates, and a decided disaffection for “Obamacare.” The same for the private option, though the question identified it as an element of “Obamacare.”
Approval/disapproval for the Tea Party was 40/40.
Two points are worth noting: 1) the undecided independent voters likely will trend conservative; 2) the sample was 9 percent black. Blacks make up about 15 percent of the population but have produced 11-12 percent of the vote in recent elections.
In short, Mark Pryor must run right but not so much that he discourages a healthy base turnout.
UPDATE: The Pryor camp responds:
“Take with a major grain of salt any partisan robo-poll, especially one conducted days before Congressman Cotton made headlines statewide for his deeply personal attacks on Mark’s Christian faith.”— Erik Dorey