The latest data from the New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online poll, which surveys 100,000 respondents nationwide, gives Republican Tom Cotton a 4-point lead over Democrat Mark Pryor in the race for Senate and Republican Asa Hutchinson a 7-point lead in the race for governor over Democrat Mike Ross.
The Times’ Nate Cohn dissects the findings:
The Republicans lead by at least four percentage points in enough races to finish with 50 seats — just one short of the 51 seats they need to overcome Joe Biden’s tiebreaking vote and take the Senate. The Republicans’ likely gains include six seats currently held by the Democrats: in South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska. If those leads hold up, Republicans have four opportunities to capture the 51st seat they need in Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Kansas.
Nonetheless, the data suggests that the Democrats retain a clear, if difficult, path to victory. Perhaps most notable, the data offers reason to question the conventional wisdom that Republicans have recently made substantial gains in Colorado and Iowa.
Cohn also noted yesterday that Democrats nationally have been showing an edge in terms of the quality of their campaigns, on air and on the ground, based on three questions in the poll:
whether recent advertisements made them more or less likely to support a candidate; whether they had been contacted by either campaign; and whether what they had heard or read over the last few weeks made them feel better or worse about a candidate.
However, here in Arkansas, the campaigns seem to be fighting to a draw by these measurements. Unsurprisingly, given the tenor of the campaign, the poll found that Arkansas voters have a worse impression of both Cotton (by 10 points) and Pryor (by 11 points) based on what they’ve heard about the candidates in the last few weeks.
Here are the results for Senate:
Cotton 45 percent
Pryor 41 percent
other 1 percent
undecided 13 percent
Margin of error: 2 percent
Hutchinson 45 percent
Ross 38 percent
other 1 percent
undecided 15 percent
Margin of error: 3 percent