The GOP presidential clown car arrives at its first milepost tomorrow at the Iowa caucuses and a poll released last night by the Des Moines Register finds that Donald Trump has a slim lead, with Ted Cruz close behind and Marco Rubio in third. Trump is back on top of the poll after Cruz had previously overtaken him. 

The DMR poll is considered the gold standard of Iowa polling. Of course there can still be surprises — the poll had Rick Santorum in third the weekend before the caucuses in 2012 and Santorum pulled off the victory. That doesn’t mean Rubio can manage the same trick, though. Santorum showed consistent, clear, and steady improvement in the weeks leading up to the caucuses, so the trend line was clearly pointing up. Rubio has actually done a bit worse over the last few days. 

Here’s the full field: 
Trump 28
Cruz 23 
Rubio 15
Ben Carson 10
Rand Paul 5
Chris Christie 3
Jeb Bush 2
Carly Fiorina 2
Mike Huckabee 2
John Kasich 2
Rick Santorum 2

May the expectations games begin! (Even Trump is saying it’s okay if he doesn’t win Iowa.)