Individual state polls still matter than national polls but we’re at the stage of the campaign where we can start to see a bigger-picture snapshot of who’s winning (and the race, more and more, is going national).  

In a new CNN poll out today, Donald Trump is lapping the field: 


Trump 49 percent
Marco Rubio 16
Ted Cruz 15
Ben Carson 10
John Kasich 6

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, is up 55-38 over Bernie Sanders.

Clinton and Trump look more and more like the presumptive nominees. In Clinton’s case, that probably means it’s all over but the shoutin’, but Trump’s situation is more complicated because the Republican party remains desperate to stop him. 


That’s the highest Trump has gotten in a national phone poll of the GOP race and puts a major dent in the notion that he has a “ceiling” of a third of Republican voters.

Meanwhile, a new Economist/YouGov Poll, also national, came out yesterday. Among likely GOP primary voters: 


Trump 44
Cruz 21
Rubio 17
Kaisch 8
Carson 7

Trump is winning and his ceiling is a lot higher than the GOP establishment has been claiming. Meanwhile, what about the idea of Trump falling off when the field winnows? That YouGov poll tried polling a three-man race and two-man races and, well, the Trump “ceiling” argument falls apart: 

Trump 49-Rubio 27-Cruz 25
Trump 58-Cruz 42
Trump 57-Rubio 43


The YouGov polling also shows that Cruz has been hurt by accusations of being a lying, dirty campaigner: