A report by the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Research Group that was included in the College of Public Health COVID-19 report released yesterday addressed the reporting of data. Within that report were these assumptions, based on cases to date: That 12 percent of individuals testing positive will require hospitalization and 4.5 percent of people testing positive will end up on a ventilator.

Another number from the Arkansas Department of Health, presented at the July 1 virus update by Secretary of Health Dr. Nate Smith: 13 percent of people hospitalized have died.

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So here’s another way to think of the 734 people whose coronavirus tests came back positive between 10 a.m. July 7 and 10 a.m. July 8, based on the trends to date:

  • Eighty-eight of these people are likely to require hospitalization.
  • Thirty-three are likely to require a ventilator to live.
  • Eleven will likely die.

Because the 734 positives do not represent one day in Arkansas’s case count but several, since those results were from tests taken over several days, that doesn’t mean that 11 Arkansans will die every day. Still, that’s a lot of people dying.

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