Re: the chart above. The Times was asked, doesn’t this UAMS/UA prediction for COVID-19 hospitalizations at the end of October mean that most of the beds in Arkansas hospitals would be filled by COVID-19 patients to the exclusion of others?

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Accompanying the chart were the following estimates for late October infection rates and bed needs:

Mean-case estimates: Total infections, 111, 776. Hospitalizations, 2,794. ICU admissions, 838. Ventilators needed, 586.

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Worst-case estimates: Total infections, 186,026. Hospitalizations 4,650. ICU admissions, 1,395. Ventilators needed, 976.

So, the mean-case estimates fall below existing capacity: Total beds, 8,917. Total ICU beds: 982. Total vents: 635. But that is total capacity for all: If hospitals did not expand capacity, there would be little room in ICUs for other critical care patients.

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For example: As of yesterday at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, the ICU had only five COVID-19 patients, but it was near capacity because of the other patients. (Vice Chancellor Leslie Taylor said it is not uncommon for UAMS’ ICU to be near capacity, given that the medical center is the only adult Level One Trauma Unit in the state.)

But hospitals have planned for a surge: UAMS has converted rooms to negative pressure and designated post-op space for new ICU rooms to expand its existing COVID-19 capacity from more than 80 beds to nearly 250. Baptist Health’s surge plans would increase its critical care beds from 198 to 295. In all, Central Arkansas hospitals would be able to add 700 beds, according to UAMS Chancellor Dr. Cam Patterson.

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Would that be enough? is the question. And what about staffing? As the modelers note, the long-term estimates are not as accurate as those being made for the next 15 days. The modelers also note that if more people could be moved to wear masks and social distance, the numbers would come way down.

Medical professionals met with the legislature in mid-June to warn about the pressure COVID-19 is putting on the state’s hospitals. At that meeting, Patterson warned: “If we are not careful in managing this, if we are not careful of pushing the incidents of infection to the lower peak rather than the higher peak, we are absolutely at risk of overwhelming our health care system in the state of Arkansas.”

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