The Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health of the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences modeling for coronavirus infections predicts that by Sept. 7, 803 people will have died of COVID-19. But that turned out to be an optimistic model; as of today, 814 people have died.

The college’s short-term forecast, which is the most accurate, taking into account the most recent data and behaviors, predicts a cumulative total of viral infection at 63,444 by Sept. 7. Today, Sept. 1, that number is 61,497. Total hospitalizations by Sept. 7: 4,685; today’s, 4,306.

Model numbers for deaths have been running a bit behind, predicting 543 on Aug. 5, when the number was 543, and 325 on Aug. 1, when the number was 475.

Go here to read the report and to see a video of Chancellor Cam Patterson and Dean Mark Williams. Williams goes through the report explaining the forecasts; he notes the accuracy of the short-term forecasts and addresses impacts on counties and ethnic groups. He also notes that according to simulations, if schools were to go online-only, cases would be reduced by 6,000 by Oct. 24. 

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The trendline is flattening; peak now is predicted at the end of December, with just under 80,000 infections. Then, a slow and much welcomed downward trend.