Here’s the latest two-week forecast from UAMS on COVID-19 cases in Arkansas, based on data from the Arkansas Department of Health.

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Short form: UAMS Chancellor Cam Patterson says the state can expect a growth of new cases (15,000 in 15 days), hospitalizations and deaths (650).

Public Health Dean Mark Williamson noted a recent decline in per capita cases statewide, but not in every county. But he said the state could add 80,000 new cases by April 15 if current trends continue.

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“The pandemic is not over,” Williamson said. He said the recent freeze had amounted to a “de facto stay-at-home order.” So, coupled with increasing vaccinations, there should be fewer cases in the next few weeks. He said it was safe to presume a more infectious variant was circulating in the state.

He said 80 percent of Arkansas remains at risk. Until large numbers are vaccinated, the usual precautions need to be observed.

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