The monthly report on COVID-19 from the UAMS Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health is as gloomy as Chancellor Cam Patterson had hinted earlier that it would be. Uncommonly high positive test rates; low vaccination rates; predictions for a growth of more than 1,000 cases a day in the next week, with many of them children under 17.

Summary points are:

 The COVID-19 test positivity rate in the state is over 20%. This is five times the national average. Although testing rates are low, this is a very high positivity rate, suggesting rapid community viral spread.

 The 15-day model forecasts 371,276 cumulative COVID-19 cases in Arkansas by July 26, an increase of 16,000 new cases over what was reported by the Arkansas Department of Health (ADH) on June 18. In the next 15 days, the number is expected to increase by an average of 1,039 cases per day.

 The 30-day model forecasts 392,772 cumulative infections on August 9, an increase of almost 36,000 cases over the number reported by the ADH on June 18, or an average of 1,236 cases per day.

 The 15-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 5,591 cases, and average of 372 cases per day. The model also forecasts an increase of 2,538 cases in children under 17, or a daily average of 169 cases.

 During the most recent two weeks, 25 counties had relative increases in new cases greater than 100%.

 The 15-day models forecast 19,970 cumulative hospitalizations and 5,660 cumulative intensive care patients by July 26. This means a daily average of 37 new patients and 20 new intensive care patients respectively.

 The 30-day model forecasts 20,850 cumulative hospitalizations by August 11, a daily average of 48 new patients.

 The group with the greatest number of hospitalizations continues to be adults ages 60 to 74. However, the 15-day model suggests hospitalizations of adults 35 to 59 will exceed those of patient 60 to 74 in the very near future.

 The 15-day model forecasts 6,043 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by July 26, a daily average of almost three deaths.

 All counties in Arkansas are experiencing low COVID-19 vaccination rates. In the last month, no county has exceeded a 5% increase in the number of persons over 12 who are vaccinated.

Get a shot. Wear a mask.

Advertisement