The latest UAMS forecast on COVID-19 in Arkansas is out and it is not cheery.

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As we said in our June report, “COVID-19 is not over in Arkansas. It is, at best, smoldering.” Well, COVID is no longer smoldering. It has broken out into a raging forest fire that will grow in size and strength. If our forecasts hold true, Arkansas will cross a new milestone. By Aug. 30, more than 7,000 Arkansans will have died of COVID-19. If this forecast holds true, COVID-19 will have killed more Arkansans than all the wars in the 20th and 21st centuries.

Here are some key points:

  The COVID-19 positivity rate in the state remains over 20%, five times the national average. Although testing rates are low, this is evidence of wide community spread.

 The 15-day model is forecasting 4,523 new COVID-19 cases on Sept. 14. This represents almost a doubling of new daily cases in the next month.

 The 30-day models continue to show Arkansans between ages 35 and 59 have the highest number of COVID-19 diagnoses — forecast to increase by 19,610 cases, an average of 1,040 cases per day.

 The highest relative growth in cases will be in children 17 and under. The state will see an additional 10,784 children with COVID-19 by Aug. 30, an increase of 17% over the number reported on Aug. 15.

 Like cases, the 30-day model is forecasting 131 new hospitalizations in Arkansas on Sept. 14 due to COVID-19. This represent an increase of a third in daily hospitalization in the next month.

 The greatest number of patients hospitalized will be adults 35 to 59, increasing by 10% over the number on Aug. 15.

 The greatest relative increase in hospitalizations will be in children 17 and under, increasing by 120 hospitalizations or 20%.

 The 30-day model is forecasting 38 new deaths due to COVID-19 on Sept. 14. This represents just under a doubling of daily deaths over the number on Aug. 16.

 The 15-day model forecasts 7,017 cumulative COVID-19 deaths by Aug. 30, adding an additional 457 deaths. We should expect an average of 30 additional deaths per day.

 All counties in Arkansas continue to show low COVID-19 vaccination rates. The greatest increase in vaccinations in the state was 11% in Sebastian County. However, most counties increased vaccinations by 2% to 5%.

Could we encourage resisters to don a mask and get a shot? No? Thought so.

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