HEAD HOG: Football Coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas Athletics

Arkansas isn’t simply playing its first January game in six years Saturday in Tampa. It’s vying for a national identity again, and that’s why this bowl game matters so much.

While everyone who witnessed the Hogs’ rapid progress in the coronavirus-altered 2020 campaign expected improvements, not many felt they’d be in line for a nine-win season. Penn State hopped out of the gates as an early favorite but now enters this Outback Bowl with a spate of key player opt-outs, namely explosive wideout Jahan Dotson, pass-rush weapon Arnold Ebiketie and linebackers Ellis Brooks and Brandon Smith.

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If Arkansas succumbs to the Nittany Lions, it’s going to be chalked up to the absence of draft-bound Treylon Burks. Or a dearth of defensive depth thanks to defections or injury. Or the Hogs simply being so new at this. (Penn State, conversely, is making its sixth bowl appearance in seven years under James Franklin.)

Sam Pittman’s obvious intent is to be the catalyst for culture change in Fayetteville. When Bret Bielema notched a couple of bowl wins, and even when Bobby Petrino claimed a pair before that, none of those felt as weighty as this one does.

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The idea of a 9-4 season, barely removed from the low ebb of Chad Morris, is satisfying. But the real payoff is in the notion that a win pushes Arkansas well into the preseason Top 25 for 2022, and the particular inertia it creates for recruiting.

Arkansas is down Burks and defensive end Tre Williams. But Penn State’s losses are more crippling generally, even for a team that ostensibly has more depth than Arkansas.

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This game, accordingly, should go the Hogs’ way if three things play out according to the Pittman game plan:

  1. Arkansas turned the ball over only nine times all year, and didn’t suffer greatly from the few cough-ups, but the Hogs also didn’t force many giveaways. It’s always so reductive to say that the team that wins the turnover battle will win the game, but the major distinction between K.J. Jefferson and Penn State’s Sean Clifford is that the latter quarterback’s gaffes have been costlier. The sixth-year senior is unquestionably a fine leader and capable of making plays, but without Dotson, he’s every bit as challenged as his Razorback counterpart will be without Burks. And Jefferson, whose sole interception in SEC play was a Hail Mary try before the half in Oxford, simply earned Kendal Briles’ trust all year with steady, occasionally explosive, but always secure play.
  2. Penn State’s offense lacks flash generally, and most of that resided in the person of Dotson (143 catches and over 2,000 yards receiving the past two years). But Arkansas’s worst performance of the season in all respects was the Auburn game where the Hogs were consistently late, or flat-out torched, by the Tigers’ slot receivers. Barry Odom’s defense was at its best this fall when the three-down front generated pressure, and Williams’ DWI arrest and departure for the draft takes away the Hogs’ best threat in that respect. Clifford showed an ability to hit secondary targets all year, including Parker Washington (57 catches, 722 yards) and Keandre Lambert-Smith (14.4 yards per catch on 31 grabs), so Arkansas cannot afford to employ soft coverage or camp out in basic defenses all day. Some exotic, high-risk looks from Odom’s defense will be essential.
  3. Dominique Johnson was, at times, the Hogs’ best back this year. He particularly shined against Mississippi State (107 yards, two scores) and Auburn (58 total yards and a score on only eight touches), but his touches were limited thanks to Trelon Smith and Raheim Sanders stealing away carries. In a game where Arkansas will need Jefferson to dole out some punishment toting the ball himself, the Hogs also need Johnson’s battering style to be put to good use. If Johnson can break a few sizable gains and wear down the Nittany Lion front, then Jefferson’s going to be able to find De’Vion Warren, Tyson Morris, Trey Knox, Blake Kern, and his tailbacks to a degree that mitigates Burks’ missing production.

And I, for one, think the matchup at hand now conclusively favors my shamelessly preferred team. Dotson isn’t rated as highly as Burks as a prospect, but he’s arguably more critical to his college team’s game plan. And Ebiketie (9.5 sacks) certainly was their highest-impact defender.

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It’s hardly worth rehashing the sad fact that these player absences do diminish the bowls and their profiles somewhat. On balance, though, both of these squads basically took equal hits, and still have ample skill players on hand to make this one lively and interesting.

Pearls sees it as a “W” for the good guys, too. RAZORBACKS 34, NITTANY LIONS 20.

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